Mortgage and refinancing rates today, October 13, 2020

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates were flat yesterday. And conventional loans today start at 2.75% (2.75% APR) for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

With yesterday’s rates unchanged was no surprise. The market in which mortgage bonds are traded was closed for Columbus Day. So there was nothing to lead the movement.

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Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Switch
Conventional 30 years fixed 2.75% 2.75% Unchanged
Conventional 15 years fixed 2,625% 2,625% Unchanged
5-year conventional MRA 3% 2,743% Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA 2.25% 3.226% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 2.25% 3,191% Unchanged
5 years ARM FHA 2.5% 3,258% + 0.01%
Fixed VA over 30 years 2.25% 2,421% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Unchanged
ARM VA 5 years 2.5% 2.44% + 0.01%

Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.

Find and lock in a low rate (December 7, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

With the Federal Reserve continuing to buy mortgage bonds in bulk, mortgage rates are unlikely to rise suddenly.

However, this danger has not completely disappeared. For example, solid news about the imminent release of an effective COVID-19 vaccine could be a game-changer, by significantly raising mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, in the face of recent polls, Wall Street is learning to love former Vice President Joe Biden. Investors and analysts increasingly see his infrastructure spending proposals as the best way forward for the US economy.

However, what’s good for the economy is bad for mortgage rates. So a Biden win and especially a blue wave (or the increasing chances of those) could put upward pressure on rates.

Meanwhile, stimulus talks remain deadlocked. So another potential source of higher rates is on the ice for now.

And my personal recommendations remain:

  • LOCK if closing 7 days
  • LOCK if closing 15 days
  • FLOAT if closing 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing 60 days

But, with so many uncertainties right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So be guided by your personal risk tolerance.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here is the inventory this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was as follows:

  • The 10-year Treasury bill yield fell to 0.73% from 0.78%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
  • Main stock market indices were a little lower at the opening. (Good for the mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases mortgage yields and rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
  • Oil price edged down to $ 40.04 from $ 40.06 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
  • Gold price fell to $ 1,899 from $ 1,929 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates.
  • CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index went from 60 out of 100 possible points to 59. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or a few cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. They have to be unusually strong (rates are likely to rise) or low (they might fall) to build on them. Today they are looking good for mortgage rates. A dismal earnings season (when large companies disclose quarterly earnings) begins today and could shake markets’ optimism. And there is little immediately obvious to ease the mood, especially with stalled stimulus talks.

Find and lock in a low rate (December 7, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (at least $ 1,000 billion; some say close to $ 2,000 billion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why“if you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
  6. In times of high demand, lenders may increase rates in order to manage their workflow. Neither the markets nor the Fed can help when this happens

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. A new all-time low was set at the start of August and we have moved closer to others since. Still, a new one remains a real possibility.

But a new low is far from certain. See “Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?” (Above) for reasons which may go higher.

It all depends on countless variables, most of which are unknowable.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing industry and businesses. mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).

Note that Fannie’s (released September 15) and MBAs (September 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddie’s is now published quarterly. The last one was released on June 8, and the next was, presumably, due in September.

But, on the morning of October 13, there was still no sign of it. So Freddie feels stale. And, if an update isn’t released this week, we can remove its entry in the following table, at least until new predictions emerge.

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:

Forecaster T4 / 20 T1 / 21 T2 / 21 Q3 / 21
Fannie mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
Freddie mac 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
MBA 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2%

Expectations therefore vary considerably. You pay your money …

Find your lowest rate today

Everyone – from federal regulators to personal finance gurus – agrees that it’s important to shop around for your new mortgage or refinance. You could save thousands of dollars in just a few years by getting quotes from multiple lenders. And more, if you hold onto your mortgage for a long time or have a large loan.

But rarely have you had more to gain from shopping than now. The mortgage market is currently very messy. And some lenders offer significantly lower rates than others. Worse yet, some make it harder to get a mortgage if you want cash refinancing, an investment property loan, a jumbo loan, or if your credit score is damaged.

So start shopping around for your new mortgage or refinance soon. You are more likely to find a good deal on the type of loan you want if you extend your net widely.

Show me today’s rates (December 7, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.

The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement for any products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, its parent company or its affiliates.

Troy M. Hoffman